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| The Relationship between Fluctuations of Stock & Real Estate Prices and Business Cycles |
| DENG Shen a,b,YANG Chao-jun b |
（a.Network Education College, Shanghai 200030; b.Antai College of Economics & Management,
Shanghai Jiaotong University, Shanghai 200052, China) |
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Abstract This paper discussed the relationship between fluctuations of stock & real estate prices and business cycles with model deduction and empirical evidence. A unite model analysing their relationship was found.The findings reveal that stock prices are the lead indicator of macroeconomy; there exists positive relationship between real estate prices and GDP, interest rates & CPI; the fluctuations of real estate prices are consistent with business cycles; and the fluctuations of stock prices greatly lead that of real estate prices.
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Received: 27 December 2007
Published: 28 November 2008
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