目的:本研究旨在建立一个预测列线图,以预测普外科急诊手术病人腹部正中切口发生切口相关并发症的风险。方法:收集247例就诊于本院外科急诊手术病人的临床资料,分为切口并发症组68例,无切口并发症组139例。用LASSO（least absolute shrinkage and selection operator）回归分析以筛选风险预测指标。对纳入的指标进行多元Logistic回归,以量化预测模型。C指数和校正曲线来评估模型的判别能力及准确性。结果:年龄（≥60岁）、吸烟、腹部手术史、术前低白蛋白血症、C反应蛋白升高及腹部间断+连续缝合方式6个指标纳入预测模型。此模型的C指数为0.747（95% CI: 0.678~0.816）,说明该模型具有良好的判别能力和准确性。结论:该列线图可用于预测普外科急诊手术病人腹部正中切口发生切口相关并发症的风险。

Objective To establish the nomogram and predict the risk factors of wound complication in patients with emergent abdominal surgery via a midline vertical incision. Methods The clinical data of 247 patients treated in Department of Surgery Ruijin Hospital including 68 cases with wound complication and 139 cases without wound complication were collected and analyzed. Risk predictors were selected from the items of clinical strategies by the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression model and multivariable logistic regression analysis was performed with incorporated items. C-index and calibration plot were used to evaluate the discrimination and calibration of prediction model. Results Six items including age ≥60 years, smoking and history of abdominal surgery, preoperative lower albumin in serum and increase in C-reactive protein level, and both continuous and interrupted suture of abdominal incision were included in the prediction model. The prediction model showed better discrimination and calibration with a C-index of 0.747 (95%Cl: 0.678-0.816). Conclusions The established nomogram can be used to predict the risk of wound complication in patients with emergent abdominal surgery via abdominal midline vertical incision.