Real-Time Risk Evaluation Method of Power System Equipment and N-m Fault Contingency Plan Generation Under Typhoon Meteorological Environment

doi:10.16183/j.cnki.jsjtu.2021.S2.004

Abstract

Abstract:

In order to improve the power grid operation risk early warning and pre-control capabilities in typhoon and other disastrous climates, the historical fault features of power grid are extracted by utilizing the machine learning technology based on the meteorological environment data, geographic environment, and the status of power transmission and transformation equipment. The meteorological risk probability of digital transmission channel is quantified to realize the advanced quantitative warning of high-risk faults in the power grid under typhoon weather environment. The proposed method can genarate the current and future N-m fault handling plans based on the current power grid status and significantly enhance the timeliness and pertinence of fault prediction. This method overcomes the difficulty that the meteorological risk model needs to be continuously revised according to the actual situation, and takes into account the response of various safety automatic devices in the power grid after a high-risk equipment failure and the control measures that need to be taken. The practical application shows that this method can provide significant decision supports for risk pre-control in the power grid dispatching operation.

Key words: meteorological risk, machine learning, quantitative warning, fault contingency plan generation, online dynamic security analysis

CLC Number:

TM732

ZHOU Yi, QIN Kangping, SUN Jinwen, FAN Dongqi, ZHENG Yiming. Real-Time Risk Evaluation Method of Power System Equipment and N-m Fault Contingency Plan Generation Under Typhoon Meteorological Environment[J]. Journal of Shanghai Jiao Tong University, 2021, 55(S2): 22-30.

Figures/Tables 10

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气象类型	数据类型	具体数据	时空分辨率
台风	中心预报	台风中心经纬度、移动速度、中心最低气压	台风生成时即开始发布,48 h警戒线外每3~6 h 1次; 24 h警戒线外每3 h 1次; 24 h警戒线内每1 h 1次
	中心实测	台风中心经纬度、台风中心风速、台风中心气压、7级风圈半径、10级风圈半径、台风中心移动速度、台风中心移动方向	台风中心实时数据1h发布1次,台风进入预报范围后,整点发布
	网格预报	台风网格风速、台风网格风向	9 km×9 km 台风期间每日8:00、20:00时各发布1次,共计12789个网格