A Damage Probability Calculation Model Based on State Equation of Firing Error for Anti-Aircraft Artillery

doi:10.16183/j.cnki.jsjtu.2020.156

Abstract

Abstract:

Aimed at the damage probability calculation of anti-aircraft artillery weapons when the firing error sequence is correlated, a recursive calculation model of the anti-aircraft artillery damage probability based on the firing error state equation is proposed. In this model, the error sequence, which matches Gaussian process, is used to build the state equation. Then, the weak correlation errors are decomposed into the predictable error and the unpredictable error. In addition, the error correlation is represented by the prediction coefficient. According to the recursive estimation theory, the calculation of the damage probability for the anti-aircraft artillery with correlation of the firing error is presented. The simulation results show that the damage probability calculation results are basically the same as those adopting the national military standard while the error is a first-order autocorrelation stationary sequence. However, the proposed recursive method has a higher accuracy if the error is a high-order autocorrelation stationary sequence.

Key words: anti-aircraft artillery, firing error, correlation coefficient, damage probability

CLC Number:

TJ35

WANG Xiangmin, WANG Jun, XIE Jietao, GUO Zhi. A Damage Probability Calculation Model Based on State Equation of Firing Error for Anti-Aircraft Artillery[J]. Journal of Shanghai Jiaotong University, 2020, 54(9): 961-966.

Figures/Tables 4

References 13

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计算模型	毁伤概率
国军标	0.3772
MC	0.3017
文献[6]	0.3316
本文	0.3083

计算模型	毁伤概率
国军标	0.3772
MC	0.2983
文献[6]递推法	0.3263
本文	0.3007