基于改进回归树的风机净空预报

  • 周诗洋 ,
  • 徐胜文 ,
  • 吕品 ,
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  • 1. 上海交通大学 海洋工程国家重点实验室,上海 200240;2. 上海交通大学 三亚崖州湾深海科技研究院,海南 三亚 572024;3. 金风科技股份有限公司 江苏金风软件技术有限公司,江苏 无锡 214028
周诗洋(2001—),硕士,主要从事风机智能化方向的研究。
徐胜文(1986—),博士,副研究员,主要从事海洋结构物水动力及运动控制等方向的研究。

网络出版日期: 2026-03-20

基金资助

上海市“青年科技启明星计划”(21QC1401000)。

Application of Improved Regression Tree in Wind Turbine Clearance Prediction

  • ZHOU Shiyang ,
  • XU Shengwen ,
  • LV Pin ,
  • et al
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  • 1. State Key Laboratory of Ocean Engineering, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200240, China; 2. Yazhou Bay Institute of Deepsea Science and Technology, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Sanya 572024, Hainan, China; 3.Goldwind Science Technology Co., Ltd., Jiangsu Goldwind Software Technology Co., Ltd., Wuxi 214028, Jiangsu, China

Online published: 2026-03-20

摘要

准确的净空监测对于风电机组的安全稳定运行至关重要。然而,现有净空监测装置往往成本高昂且可靠性不足。针对这些挑战,提出一种基于深度学习的代理模型预测流程。首先,利用OpenFAST对自定义机组进行仿真,生成高质量的数据集,以克服传统测量方案中噪声大和精度低的问题。随后,通过特征工程降低模型训练难度,针对分类与回归树 (CART)模型,通过分风速段训练和大变形样本加权优化,实现了模型整体预测精度和峰值预测精度大幅提高的双重目标。结果显示:改进后的回归树模型,在整体预测精度(RMSE)上平均提高了7.51%,而且在峰值预测指标正误差超过0.5m和1.0m的比例分别降低了17.8%和35.4%。在涵盖切入到切出风速的100min测试结果中,Segmented-Weighted模型峰值最大预测正误差为0.402m、整体预测误差NRMSE为1.49%、正误差大于0.5m和1.0m样本比例为10.2%和1.69%,该流程为风机净空监测提供了一种高效、可靠且经济的解决方案。

本文引用格式

周诗洋 , 徐胜文 , 吕品 , . 基于改进回归树的风机净空预报[J]. 海洋工程装备与技术, 2026 , 13(1) : 58 -68 . DOI: 10.12087/oeet.2095-7297.2026.01.07

Abstract

Accurate clearance monitoring is critical to the safe and stable operation of wind turbines. However, existing clearance-monitoring systems are often costly and suffer from limited reliability. To address these challenges, this study proposes a deep-learning-based surrogate-model workflow for clearance prediction. High-fidelity simulations of a custom turbine are first performed using OpenFAST to generate a high-quality dataset that mitigates the high noise and low accuracy inherent in conventional measurement approaches. Feature engineering is then applied to reduce model training complexity. For the classification and regression-tree (CART) model, we introduced wind-speed-segmented training and a sample-weighting scheme that emphasizes large-deformation cases, thereby jointly improving overall predictive accuracy and peak-value fidelity. Results show that the modified CART model achieves, on average, a 7.51% reduction in RMSE; the proportion of positive prediction errors exceeding 0.5m and 1.0m are reduced by 17.8% and 35.4%, respectively. On a 100-minute test covering cut-in to cut-out wind speeds, the Segmented-Weighted model attains a maximum positive peak prediction error of 0.402m, an overall NRMSE of 1.49%, and proportions of positive errors greater than 0.5m and 1.0m of 10.2% and 1.69%, respectively. The proposed workflow provides an efficient, reliable, and cost-effective approach for wind-turbine clearance monitoring.
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