1 Introduction
2 Methodology
2.1 Analytical framework
2.1.1 The Multilevel Perspective
2.1.2 PESTLE analysis
2.2 The study area
2.3 Methodological approach
3 Results and discussion
3.1 MLP analysis of the drivers and barriers to carbon neutrality in Nigeria
Table 1 Potential drivers and barriers to carbon neutrality in Nigeria |
Sociotechnical Level | Potential drivers | Barriers |
---|---|---|
Regime level | RD1- Renewable energy resources RD2 - Efficiency in energy use RD3 - Compliance with UNFCCC requirements | RB1- Poor governance support RB2- Weak policy implementation RB3- Strategic interest RB4- Poor articulation of Landscape pressure RB5- Dependence on external funding RB6- Extreme Poverty RB7- Volatile international oil prices RB8- Policy inconsistence RB9- Energy poverty RB10- Energy Subsidies RB11- Data transparency RB12- Biomass economy RB13- Management of the energy system |
Niche Level | ND1- Strong niche market demand ND2- Existence of RE centres ND3- Employment opportunities RE tech ND4- Potentials for Carbon sink/ NBS | NB1 - Expensive/complex RE technologies NB2- Weak infrastructural base NB3-Technology transfer/capacity building NB4- Gas flaring |
Landscape Level | LD1- Global Climate Fund | LB1- Climate Change Impact LB2- Population growth LB3- Carbon tax LB4- Weak climate governance LB5- Global disinvestment in fossil fuel |
3.1.1 The potential drivers and barriers at the regime level
3.1.2 The potential drivers and barriers at the niche level
3.1.3 Landscape-level drivers and barriers to carbon neutrality
3.2 PESTLE analysis of the drivers and barriers to carbon neutrality
Table 2 PESTLE score values for potential drivers |
Code No | Potential Drivers of carbon neutrality | Socio-Technical Level | Strength of potential drivers | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0.1-1.0 Very Low | 1.1-2.0 Low | 2.1-3.0 Medium | 3.1-4.0 High aG.A 3.7 | 4.1-5.0 Very High | |||
P1 | Compliance with UNFCCC requirements | Regime | 3.5 | ||||
P2 | Political will to drive transition | Regime | 3.1 | ||||
E1 | Strong niche market demand | Niche | 4.4 | ||||
E2 | Global Climate Fund | Landscape | 2.4 | ||||
S1 | Employment opportunities in RE tech | Niche | 4.6 | ||||
T1 | Renewable energy resources | Regime | 4.8 | ||||
T2 | Efficiency in Energy use | Regime | 1.7 | ||||
T3 | Existence of research/ innovation centres | Niche | 3.1 | ||||
T4 | Availability of Footprint area for RE | Landscape | 4.5 | ||||
L1 | Climate Change Act/ policies | Regime | 3.7 | ||||
En1 | Potentials for Carbon sink/ NBS | Niche | 4.7 | ||||
Total | 1.7 | 2.4 | 3.1 | 10.5 | 23.0 |
aG. A. means global average = the overall mean of the scores |
Table 3 PESTLE score values for barriers |
Code No | Barriers to carbon neutrality | Socio-Technical Level | Strength of the Barriers | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0.1-1.0 Very Low | 1.1-2.0 Low | 2.1-3.0 Medium | 3.1-4.0 High G.A 3.9 | 4.1-5.0 Very High | |||
P3 | Poor governance support | Regime | 4.5 | ||||
P4 | Weak policy implementation | Regime | 4.6 | ||||
P5 | Strategic interest | Regime | 3.2 | ||||
P6 | Poor articulation of Landscape pressure | Regime | 2.9 | ||||
P7 | Policy inconsistence | Regime | 4.6 | ||||
P8 | Energy Subsidies | Regime | 4.0 | ||||
P9 | Data transparency | Regime | 4.0 | ||||
P10 | Management of the energy system | Regime | 4.5 | ||||
P11 | Weak climate governance | Landscape | 3.3 | ||||
E3 | Dependence on external funding | Regime | 4.6 | ||||
E4 | Volatile international oil prices | Landscape | 4.6 | ||||
E5 | Carbon tax | Landscape | 4.0 | ||||
E6 | Global disinvestment in fossil fuel | Landscape | 4.5 | ||||
E7 | Cost of RE solutions | Niche | 4.9 | ||||
S2 | Extreme poverty | Regime | 4.6 | ||||
S3 | Energy poverty | Regime | 4.7 | ||||
S4 | Biomass economy | Regime | 4.7 | ||||
S5 | Population growth | Landscape | 4.5 | ||||
S6 | Poor social inclusion | Regime | 4.5 | ||||
S7 | Stakeholder participation | Regime | 4.7 | ||||
S8 | Awareness of transition | Regime | 4.5 | ||||
T5 | Expensive/ complex RE technologies | Niche | 4.6 | ||||
T6 | Weak infrastructural base | Niche | 4.9 | ||||
T7 | Technology transfer/capacity building | Niche | 4.1 | ||||
T8 | Retrofitting old Energy systems | Niche | 4.4 | ||||
L2 | Domestication of climate change Act/ policies at State/ Local level | Regime | 3.7 | ||||
L3 | Conflicting laws, conflict of interests | Regime | 4.1 | ||||
En2 | Gas flaring | Regime | 4.6 | ||||
En3 | Climate Change Impact | Landscape | 4.6 | ||||
En4 | Deforestation | Landscape | 4.7 | ||||
Total | 0 | 0 | 2.9 | 22.1 | 105.0 |
3.2.1 Political factors
Fig. 1 Expert evaluation of potential drivers |
Fig. 2 Expert evaluation of barriers |
3.2.2 Economic factors
3.2.3 Social factors
3.2.4 Technological factor
3.2.5 Legal issues
3.2.6 Environmental issues
3.3 The Impact/Uncertainty Grid
Fig. 3 Dependency structure matrix for drivers and barriers of carbon neutrality |
3.4 Implications of Nigeria’s pathway to carbon neutrality for Sub-Saharan Africa
4 Conclusion
Appendix 1
Transition pathway and contexts
Transition pathway
Transition contexts
Appendix 2
Table 4 Selection of experts for expert elicitation survey |
ID code | Sex | Category | Organization | Field of Specialization | Qualification | Position |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
R01 | M | FM | Department of Climate Change, FME | Environmental Engineering | PhD | Deputy Director |
R02 | M | FM | Department of Climate Change, FME | Physics | PhD | Director |
R03 | F | FM | Department of Climate Change, FME | Marine Engin | MSc | SRF |
R04 | M | GA | Office of the National Focal Point to the UNFCCC | Climate studies | BSc | Deputy Director |
R05 | M | GA | Office of the National Focal Point to the UNFCCC | Law | PhD | Director |
R06 | M | GA | Office of the National Focal Point to the UNFCCC | Computer Engin | MSc | Executive Sec |
R07 | M | GA | Nigeria Renewable Energy Agency | Environ Sciences | MSc | Asst. Director |
R08 | M | GA | Nigeria Renewable Energy Agency | Environ management | PhD | Deputy Director |
R09 | F | CSP | African Climate Foundation | Mathematics | BSc | Executive Sec |
R10 | M | GA | Energy Commission of Nigeria | Electrical Engineering | MSc | Deputy Director |
R11 | M | GA | Energy Commission of Nigeria | Electrical Engineering | PhD | Deputy Director |
R12 | M | IR | Nigeria Midstream & Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority | Petroleum Engineering | MSc | Executive Sec |
R13 | M | CSP | Nigeria National Petroleum Corporation | Chemistry | PhD | Asst. Director |
R14 | M | CSP | Nigeria National Petroleum Corporation | Chemical Engineering | MSc | Assistant R. Manager |
R15 | F | CSO | Civil Society Legislative Advocacy | Law | LLB | Executive Sec |
R16 | M | CSO | Civil Society Legislative Advocacy | International Relations | BA | Program Officer |
R17 | M | CSP | Nigeria Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) ltd | Economics | MSc | Deputy manager |
R18 | M | RI | Centre for climate change and development, Alex Ekwueme Federal University Ndufu-Alike | Petro-chemical Engineering | PhD | Professor |
R19 | M | CSP | Renewable energy association of Nigeria (REAN) | Civil engineering | MSc | Executive Sec |
R20 | F | CSP | Renewable energy association of Nigeria (REAN) | Architecture | PhD | Vice Chairman |
R21 | M | IR | National Electricity Regulatory Commission | Law | LLB | Senior Legal Adviser |
R22 | M | IR | National Oil Spill Detection & Response Agency (NOSDRA) | Environmental Sciences | BSc | Executive Sec |
R23 | M | RI | Shell Centre for Environmental Management and Control (UNEC) | Chemical Engineering | PhD | Professor |
R24 | M | RI | Shell Centre for Environmental Management and Control (UNEC) | Environmental management | PhD | Professor |
R25 | M | CSP | Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria | Economics | BSc | Manager |
R26 | F | FM | Federal Ministry of Power Abuja | Electrical Engin | PhD | Director |
R27 | M | FM | Federal Ministry of Power Abuja | Physics | PhD | Asst. Director |
R28 | F | CSP | ECOWAS Centre of Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency | Environmental Engineering | PhD | Executive Sec |
R29 | M | CSP | ECOWAS Centre of Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency | Geography | PhD | Senior Data Analyst |
R30 | M | AC | Department of Environmental Management Federal University of technology Owerri | Environmental Sciences | PhD | Professor |
R31 | M | AC | Department of Environmental Management Federal University of technology Owerri | Environmental Engineering | PhD | Professor |
R32 | F | AC | Department of Environmental Management Federal University of technology Owerri | Chemical Engineering | PhD | Senior lecturer |
R33 | M | CSP | Nigerian Environmental Society | Environmental Sciences | MSc | Vice chairman |
GA Government agency, FM Federal ministry, CSP Corporate service providers, IR Industry regulators, CSO Civil society organizations, AC Academia, RI Research institutes |