1 Introduction
Fig. 1 Roadmap of the review in the global climate finance architecture |
2 The accounting muddle of international climate finance
Fig. 2 Global Climate finance flows (in billion US dollars). Data source: Climate Policy Initiative (2021) |
2.1 Distinct accounting results
Table 1 Estimations of annual climate finance from major institutions and publication (in billion US dollars) |
| Institution | Type | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UNFCCC | Public | 17.0 | 17.1 | 25.4 | 26.6 | 32.5 | 37.3 | 35.5 | 40.0 | 40.2 | 40.1 |
| OECD | Public | / | / | 38.0 | 43.5 | 42.1 | 46.9 | 54.1 | 62.5 | 63.4 | 68.3 |
| Private | / | / | 14.4 | 18.3 | / | 11.6 | 17.5 | 17.4 | 17.0 | 15.0 | |
| MDB report | Multilateral | 27.0 | 26.8 | 23.8 | 28.3 | 25.1 | 27.4 | 35.2 | 43.1 | 61.6 | 66.0 |
| Public | / | / | / | / | 44.8 | 22.2 | 29.9 | 39.9 | 47.0 | 53.4 | |
| Private | / | / | / | / | 10.9 | 15.7 | 21.8 | 28.2 | 55.6 | 31.7 | |
| Oxfam | Public | / | / | 11.0-21.0 | 15.0-19.5 | 19.0-22.5 | 18.7-21.9 | 21.1-24.7 | |||
| Toetzke et al. [104] | Public | 6.3 | 5.8 | 6.5 | 6.6 | 6.7 | 6.8 | 7.5 | 8.3 | 7.7 | / |
2.2 Institutional capacity
Table 2 The characteristics of accounting methodology by main institutions and publication |
| Source | Data Source | Methodology | Main Features |
|---|---|---|---|
| UNFCCC | Biennial reports | Various methodology and varying interpretations | Without estimation mechanism in details of the project reported |
| OECD | OECD-DAC Creditor Reporting System data, multilateral providers (MDBs and Climate Funds) | Rio markers: markers of “0”, “1” and “2” correspond to coefficients of 0%, 50% and 100%, respectively | Analyzed from both donor and recipient’s perspectives |
| MDB report | AfDB, ADB,AIIB, EBRD, EIB,IDBG, IsDB, WBG | Common Principles for Climate Change Adaptation Finance Tracking: The identification and estimation of adaptation finance is limited solely to those project activities that are clearly linked to the climate change vulnerability context Common Principles for Climate Change Mitigation Finance Tracking: This approach focuses on the type of activity to be executed, and not on its purpose, the origin of the financial resources or the results | Context-based reporting and tracking in a granular manner |
| Oxfam | Biennial reports (for bilateral part), OECD climate finance dataset (for multilateral part) | Counted at grant equivalent value: (1) public finance grants are counted at 100%; (2) bilateral concessional loans are counted using discount rates based on the long-tern cost of funds to the issuing country at the time the loan is disbursed, plus a risk margin based on recipient county credit risk; (3) for multilateral finance, average grant element percentage of OECD standard methodology was used; (4) non-concessional instruments and mobilized private finance are counted as no direct assistance value; (5) equity instruments are counted at face value | Climate-specific net assistance (CSNA): only 30%-50% of the projects that partially target climate action is calculated |
| Toetzke et al. [104] | OECD-DAC Creditor Reporting System data | ClimateFinanceBERT, a transformer-based machine learning model, consists of two subsequent classifiers: the first classifier evaluates the relevance of a project description for mitigation, adaptation or environment; the second classifier attributes relevant projects to the most suitable climate finance category | The machine-learning-based model is able to identify a great number of projects, but is confined by the language and the level of details in project descriptions |
2.3 Private finance mobilization
3 Allocation of climate finance: the underlying motivations
3.1 Donor self-interests
Fig. 4 The Road Map of the Donor interests Literature. Notes: + indicates the positive impact on the amount of climate finance provided. * indicates a mixed impact based on the actual situation. The summary of literature can be found in Appendix Table 3 |
3.2 Recipient needs
Fig. 5 The Road Map of the Recipient needs Literature. Notes: + indicates the positive impact on the amount of climate finance provided. * indicates a mixed impact based on the actual situation. The summary of literature can be found in Appendix Table 4 |
4 Exploring the effectiveness of international climate finance
4.1 Factors in effective delivery
4.2 The actual impact
Fig. 6 The Possible Impact exerted by the climate finance. Notes: + indicates the promoting effect on the situation. - indicates the constraining effect on the situation. * indicates a mixed impact based on the actual situation. The summary of literature can be found in Appendix Table 5 |
5 New development assistance vs. Official development assistance: a rising role of South-South cooperation on climate change
6 Conclusion: what is next for the global landscape of climate finance
Appendix
Table 3 Summary of the donor interest literature |
| Author(s) | Methodology | Period | Data | Key related findings |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michaelowa & Michaelowa [60] | Logit estimation | 1995-2007 | Aid data for 21 DAC donors by AidData | General ecological preferences of the donor country population and the ideological preferences of the donor government influence the climate finance commitment |
| Pickering et al. [81] | Qualitative analysis + Quantitative analysis | 2010-2012 | 7 contributor countries: Australia, Denmark, Germany, Japan, Switzerland, the UK, and the US | Aid ministries are more likely to provide adaptation finance, whereas environment ministries are more likely to provide mitigation finance |
| Halimanjaya & Papyrakis [34] | Random effects estimation | 1998-2009 | Aid data for 22 donor countries by OECD CRS | Donors with better institutions tend to provide more mitigation finance. Donors that ratified the Kyoto Protocol provided higher proportion of disbursed mitigation finance |
| Halimanjaya [33] | Regression analysis | 1998-2010 | Aid data for 5 green donors and 180 developing countries by OECD CRS | Geopolitical interests of the donor may influence the allocation of mitigation finance based on the geographic location |
| Pickering & Mitchell [80] | Qualitative analysis + Quantitative analysis | 2007-2015 | Case study of Australia: data by Australian Bureau of Statistics and OECD CRS dataset | International peer group effects would encourage the donor country to provide more climate finance |
| Román et al. [87] | Structural decomposition analysis (SDA) | 2011 | Aid data of 5 developing countries and 4 donor countries by the World Input-Output Database | Trade interconnections with recipient countries increase the ability of donors to capture economic benefits, thus promoting the donors to provide more climate finance |
| Weiler et al. [115] | Two-stage Cragg model | 2010-2015 | Adaptation finance data from OECD CRS | Both trade ties and colonial ties are strong drivers of adaptation aid |
| Betzold & Weiler [5] | Multivariate regression analysis + Qualitative case studies with semi-structured interviews | 2010-2015 | Adaptation finance data from OECD CRS and cases of 3 large donors: UK Germany and Sweden | Donors tend to provide more adaptation aid to countries where they export a lot |
| Klöck et al. [50] | Random effect regression model | 2011-2015 | Aid data of 30 donor countries from OECD CRS | Richer countries provide more aid. But responsibility, greenness of the political power or self-interest do not induce more climate aid commitments |
| Peterson & Skovgaard [78] | Multiple regression analysis | 2007-2015 | Aid data from OECD CRS | Lower income countries tend to be selected as recipients of climate finance when the ministry of development is involved. When the ministry of environment is involved, donor countries are likely to provide aid to UNFCCC allies |
| Weiler & Klöck [114] | Network model: Temporal Exponential Random Graph Models (TERGMs) | 2010-2016 | Aid data from OECD CRS | Donor-donor interactions play a role: Donor tends to support adaptation in a similar sets of recipient countries as other donors do |
| Bayramoglu et al. [4] | Fixed effects + Instrumental variable-2 stage least square estimations (IV-2SLS) | 2002-2017 | Aid data from OECD CRS | Bilateral trade has a positive impact on climate aid transfers |
| Han & Cheng [35] | Double-hurdle Tobit model | 2010-2018 | Aid data from OECD CRS | Multilateral institutions played catalytic role in fostering bilateral climate finance |
| Qian et al. [83] | Fixed effect regression analysis | 2011-2020 | Aid data from OECD CRS | The long-term economic development level affects the donor countries’ willingness to provide climate finance. The tied aid effect implies that economic benefit gained from the recipient countries motivate the donor countries to provide more climate finance |
Table 4 Summary of the recipients need literature |
| Author(s) | Methodology | Period | Data | Key related findings |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Halimanjaya [33] | Regression analysis | 1998-2010 | Aid data for 5 green donors and 180 developing countries by OECD CRS | Developing countries with large carbon sinks and good institutional performance tend to receive more mitigation finance |
| Bagchi et al. [2] | Tobit | 2002-2013 | Aid data for 25 donors to 130 recipients by OECD CRS | Countries with better governance and political stability obtain more mitigation aid. Countries with higher GDPs also tend to receive more mitigation aid |
| Weiler et al. [115] | Two-stage Cragg model | 2010-2015 | Adaptation finance data from OECD CRS | Donors allocate more adaptation aid to vulnerable countries and countries with better governmental quality |
| Betzold & Weiler [5] | Multivariate regression analysis + Qualitative case studies | 2010-2015 | Adaptation finance data from OECD CRS and cases of three large donors: UK, Germany and Sweden | Recipients that are more exposed and sensitive to climate risks tend to receive more adaptation aid. Donors tend to provide more adaptation aid to well-governed countries |
| Weiler & Sanubi [116] | Two-stage Cragg model | 2010-2016 | Aid data for 28 OECD donors to 53 African recipients by OECD CRS | African countries with the most development needs and vulnerability issues tend to also receive higher amount of climate aid |
| Garschagen & Doshi [29] | N/A | 2015-2019 | Funding data from Green Climate Fund | The most vulnerable countries are not prioritized to receive the most climate funding. The institutional capacity and bureaucratic fitness of the developing country determines the access modality to climate funding |
| Islam [42] | Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) regression | 2000-2018 | Aid data by OECD CRS | Lower readiness (social, institutional and economic qualities) of the recipient countries led to lower funding received. The least developed countries received lower adaptation funding |
| Han & Cheng [35] | Double-hurdle Tobit model | 2010-2018 | Aid data by OECD CRS | The quality of the budget and financial management and the quality of public administration of the recipient enhanced the likelihood of receiving climate aid |
| Xie et al. [123] | Data envelopment analysis (DEA) | 2010-2020 | Funding data from major MDBs | MDB climate finance is concentrated on a few relatively wealthy nations, and positively correlates with the recipients’ greenhouse gas emission, but not with their vulnerability |
Table 5 Summary of Literature over the impact by climate finance |
| Author(s) | Methodology | Period | Sample | Key related findings |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hofisi et al. [38] | N/A | N/A | African countries | The climate financing towards climate smart agricultural activities may be effective in mitigating the impact of climate change on food security in developing countries |
| Wong [118] | N/A | N/A | Four major existing climate funds | Climate finance, especially the Green Climate Fund, has the potential to strengthen the resources and rights of both previously-deprived women and men, and consequently to achieve gender equity |
| Bhattacharyya et al. [7] | Fixed effects regression model | 1971-2011 | Aid data of 128 countries from AidData | There is no evidence of a systematic effect of energy-related aid on emissions in recipients |
| Román et al. [87] | Structural decomposition analysis (SDA) | 2011 | Data of five developing countries and four donor countries by the World Input-Output Database | Developing countries where industries involved in mitigation and adaptation projects are well developed and connected, and offer competitive products and services with a high content of value-added, climate actions deliver larger benefits to the local economy |
| Carfora & Scandurra [12] | Propensity score matching (PSM) | 2010 | Aid data of 149 countries from AidData | The climate funds have been devoted to enhance energy efficiency and sustainability, as well as to promote energy transition |
| Cholibois [20] | N/A | N/A | Semi-structured interviews within Madagascan energy sector; project finance flows collected by GIZ | Public climate finance grants are linked to higher investments to complementary social services, which indicates increased levels of energy justice |
| Scandurra et al. [92] | Panel-corrected standard errors (PCSE) | 2010-2014 | Climate finance data to 33 SIDS from AidData | External climate public funds can be confirmed to reduce vulnerability effectively |
| Wu et al. [122] | Mediation model | 1980-2016 | Aid data by AidData and OECD CRS | Climate aid is found to directly reduce carbon emissions in recipient countries. Climate aid with low-carbon technology attribute can also promote the gradual transition of clean energy |
| Chapel [13] | Propensity score matching (PSM) | 1995-2014 | Aid data from AidData and survey data from the Afrobarometer of 19 sub-Saharan African countries | Energy aid projects has a positive significant impact on electrification in communities in sub-Saharan Africa |
| Haque & Rashid [37] | Fixed effects model | 2000-2013 | Renewable energy project data from AidData | Renewable energy aid projects enhance generation capacity of the energy sector in recipients |
| Khan et al. [48] | Principal component analysis (PCA); Robust least squares regression | 2020- 2021 | World Bank member states | Climate financing was shown to have a favorable impact on containing coronavirus exposure |
| Lee et al. [52] | Fixed effects model | 2000-2018 | Aid data by OECD CRS | The reduction effect of climate finance is more notable in SIDS and countries with stronger economic development |
| Li et al. [56] | Differences-in-differences (DID) | 2000-2017 | Aid data by OECD CRS | Climate finance can effectively reduce the carbon emissions level of recipient countries |
| Zeng et al. [127] | GMM | 2000-2018 | Aid data of 93 Belt & Road countries from OECD CRS | Climate aid has a significant reduction effect on the carbon emissions intensity of BRI countries |
| Zhao et al. [129] | Fixed effects model + GMM | 2000-2018 | Aid data of 133 developing countries from OECD CRS | Climate finance significantly aggravates the economic risks |
| Apergis et al. [1] | GMM | 2002-2018 | Aid data of 97 developing countries from OECD DAC | Green aid is found to significantly reduce carbon dioxide emissions |

