1 Introduction
2 Carbon emission calculation methods and control paths
2.1 Methods for calculating energy consumption in building operation
2.1.1 Population growth and distribution forecasts
Fig. 1 The forecast of population development and distribution in 2011-2060 [10] |
2.1.2 Forecast of floor area
Fig. 2 The forecast of building floor area of different climate zones and building types in 2011-2060 |
2.1.3 Energy consumption per unit of floor area
2.2 Methods for calculating building operational carbon emissions
Fig. 3 Building carbon emissions in different climate zones under the baseline scenario |
2.3 Design of Carbon emission control pathways
2.3.1 Priority of clean grid dependence
2.3.2 Priority for building photovoltaic applications
2.3.3 Priority for upgrading energy-saving regulations
Table 1 Technical Pathway Settings |
Technical Pathways | Sub scenario | Notes |
---|---|---|
Path 1: Priority of clean grid dependence | Full electrification of building energy | From 52% in 2018 to 100% in 2060 |
Clean grid | Build a new power system with new energy as the main body (2030, 0.47kgCO2/kWh,2060,0.072kgCO2/kWh) | |
Path 2: Priority for building photovoltaic applications | Low-speed development of ultra-low energy consumption buildings | Spontaneous provincial and municipal policies (In 2025, new ultra-low energy consumption buildings will account for 10%, and in 2060, new ultra-low energy consumption buildings will account for 70%) |
Electrification of energy consumption of ordinary buildings (excluding ultra-low energy consumption buildings) | From 51% in 2018 to 100% in 2060 (excluding northern building heating) | |
Building photovoltaic applications | Building PV installed capacity will reach 800GW | |
Clean heat source | Achieve 100% clean heating in 2060 | |
Clean grid | Build a new power system with new energy as the main body (2030, 0.47kgCO2/kWh,2060,0.072kgCO2/kWh) | |
Path 3: Priority for upgrading energy-saving regulations | Enhanced energy efficiency regulations for new buildings | In 2025, new buildings will be mandated to implement ultra-low energy building standards, new buildings will be mandated to implement near-zero energy building standards in 2030, and new buildings will be mandated to implement zero energy building standards in 2035. |
Deep retrofition of existing buildings | 2.2 billion m2 of energy-saving retrofition of ordinary buildings | |
Electrification of energy consumption of ordinary buildings (excluding ultra-low energy consumption buildings) | From 51% in 2018 to 100% in 2060 | |
Rural photovoltaic buildings | Rural areas will accumulate 350GW of installed capacity | |
Clean heat source | Achieve 100% clean heating in 2060 | |
Clean grid | Build a new power system with new energy as the main body (2030, 0.47kgCO2/kWh, 2060, 0.072kgCO2/kWh) |
3 Result analysis
3.1 Prediction of energy consumption in the operation stage of buildings
Fig. 4 Projected building energy consumption at the operational stage under different pathways from 2011 to 2060 |
3.2 Prediction of carbon emission in the operation stage of buildings
Fig. 5 Projected building carbon emissions under different pathways from 2011 to 2060 |