组织工程与重建外科杂志 ›› 2025, Vol. 21 ›› Issue (3): 258-.

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小耳畸形外耳再造术后并发症相关危险因素预测模型建立及结构式与叙事疗法分析

  

  • 出版日期:2025-06-02 发布日期:2025-07-01

 Predictive modeling of risk factors associated with complications after microtia external ear reconstruction and analysis of structural versus narrative therapy

  • Online:2025-06-02 Published:2025-07-01

摘要: 目的 探究小耳畸形外耳再造术后并发症相关危险因素并建立预测模型,以及结构式与叙事疗法的效果分 析。方法 选取2020年1月至2023年12月行小耳畸形外耳再造术后发生并发症的32例患者作为并发症组,另选取同 期行小耳畸形外耳再造术后未发生并发症的153例患者作为非并发症组。收集两组临床资料,利用Logistic回归模型评 估危险因素,采用受试者工作特征(ROC)曲线评估预测价值,并基于危险因素构建决策树模型。同时选取本院在2023年 3月至2023年12月行小耳畸形外耳再造术的56例患者作为对照组,实施常规疗法;2024年1月至2024年9月行小耳畸形 外耳再造术的49例患者作为观察组,实施结构式与叙事疗法。对比两组心理弹性、恐惧状态及并发症发生情况。结果  Logistic回归分析显示:年龄≥10岁(OR值=6.709)、耳廓畸形Max分级Ⅲ级(OR值=3.049)、外耳道闭锁分级Ⅲ级(OR值= 5.440)、有慢性疾病(OR值=3.958)、术中出血量≥50 mL(OR值=5.029)、入院时间4月至9月(OR值=6.676)是小耳畸形外 耳再造术后发生并发症的独立危险因素(P<0.05)。ROC曲线显示:年龄、耳廓畸形Max分级、外耳道闭锁分级、慢性疾 病、术中出血量、入院时间及联合预测,对于预测小耳畸形外耳再造术后并发症均具有统计学意义(P<0.05);其中,联 合预测的曲线下面积(AUC)=0.916,95%CI为0.874~0.957,灵敏度为0.906,特异度为0.850,预测价值较高。决策树模型 显示:外耳道闭锁分级Ⅲ级是最重要的预测因子,模型的分类准确率为 81.00%。干预后,观察组心理弹性量表(CDRISC)评分高于对照组(P<0.05);儿童医疗恐惧量表(CMFS)评分低于对照组(P<0.05);观察组的并发症发生率为 2.04%,显著低于对照组的 12.50%(P<0.05)。结论 年龄≥10岁、耳廓畸形 Max分级Ⅲ级、外耳道闭锁分级Ⅲ级、有慢 性疾病、术中出血量≥50 mL、入院时间4月至9月等因素,是小耳畸形外耳再造术后发生并发症的独立危险因素。此外, 结构式与叙事疗法干预效果较好,可改善患者心理状态,降低并发症发生率,值得临床推广应用。

关键词: 小耳畸形, &emsp, 外耳再造术, &emsp, 并发症, &emsp, 危险因素, &emsp, 预测, &emsp, 结构式与叙事疗法

Abstract: Objective To explore the related risk factors of complications after microtia external ear reconstruction and establish a predictive model, as well as the effect analysis of structural versus narrative therapy. Methods  Thirty-two patients who developed complications after microtia external ear reconstruction from January 2020 to December 2023 were selected as the complication group, and 153 patients who did not develop complications after microtia external ear reconstruction performed in the same period were selected as the non-complication group. The clinical data of the two groups were collected, the risk factors were evaluated using logistic regression model, the predictive value was assessed using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, and the decision tree model was constructed based on the risk factors. Meanwhile, 56 patients who underwent external ear reconstruction for microtia from March 2023 to December 2023 were selected as the control group, and conventional therapy was implemented, while 49 patients who underwent external ear reconstruction for microtia from January 2024 to September 2024 were selected as the observation group, and structural and narrative therapy was implemented. The two groups were compared in terms of psychological resilience, fear state and complication occurrence. Results  Logistic regression analysis showed that age ≥10 years (OR=6.709), auricular malformation Max grade Ⅲ (OR=3.049), atresia grade Ⅲ (OR=5.440), having chronic diseases (OR=3.958), intraoperative bleeding ≥50 mL (OR=5.029), and admission time from April to September (OR=6.676) were independent risk factors for complications after microtia external ear reconstruction (P<0.05). The ROC curves showed that age, Max grading of auricular deformity, atresia grading of the external auditory canal, chronic disease, intraoperative bleeding, admission time, and joint prediction were statistically significant in predicting the occurrence of complications after microtia external ear reconstruction (P<0.05). Among them, the area under the curve( AUC) of the joint prediction was 0.916, the 95% CI was 0.874-0.957, the sensitivity was 0.906, the specificity was 0.850, and the predictive value was relatively high. The decision tree model showed that grade Ⅲ of external auditory canal atresia grading was the most important predictor, and the classification accuracy of the model was 81.00%. After the intervention, the psychological resilience scale (CD-RISC) score of the observation group was higher than that of the control group (P<0.05), and the children′s medical fear scale (CMFS) score was lower than that of the control group( P<0.05). The complication rate of 2.04% in the observation group was significantly lower than 12.50% in the control group (P<0.05). Conclusion Age ≥10 years old, auricular deformity Max grading grade Ⅲ, external auditory canal atresia grading grade Ⅲ, chronic diseases, intraoperative bleeding ≥50 mL, and admission time from April to September were independent risk factors for complications after external ear reconstruction for microtia. In addition, structural and narrative therapy interventions are more effective, can improve the psychological state of patients and reduce the complication rate, which is worthy of clinical promotion and application.

Key words: Microtia, &emsp, External ear reconstruction, &emsp, Complications, &emsp, Risk factors, &emsp, Prediction, &emsp, Structural versus narrative therapy