Original articles

Prediction value of first trimester ultrasound parameters for pregnancy outcome

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  • The International Peace Maternity and Child Health Hospital, School of Medicine, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai, China, Shanghai Key Laboratory of Embryo Original Diseases, Shanghai Municipal Key Clinical Specialty, Shanghai, 200030 China

Received date: 2021-05-25

  Online published: 2022-06-28

Abstract

Objective: To explore the predictive value of ultrasonographic parameters in the first trimester pregnancy outcomes. Methods: A total of 1 651 pregnancy were enrolled, and ultrasonographic parameters including fetal heart rate(FHR), mean gestation sac diameter(MSD) and crown to rump length (CRL) at or before 7 weeks′ gestational age were measured, and the sonogram obtained at or before 13 weeks′ gestation to determine the embryo survived or demise.It revealed that 1 556 cases were classified into ongoing pregnancy group and 95 cases were into spontaneous abortion group. Results: Before 13 weeks′, the spontaneous abortion rate was 5.85% in the study. Pregnancy loss occurred in all the cases with the FHR slower than or equal to 80 bpm (100%), while in fetal with FHR>90 bpm decreased significantly (2.51%). The survival rate increased with the increase of FHR when FHR≤130 bpm, while the fetal demise rate increased as FHR>130 bpm(2.79%). The spontaneous abortion rate was 57.14% as MSD-CRL≤5 mm. The bigger the MSD-CRL was, the higher the survival rate was. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis demonstrated that AUC of FHR=97 bpm for poor pregnancy outcome was 0.870 (P<0.05), while sensitivity, specificity, PPV and NPV were 81.05%, 99.04%, 83.7% and 98.8% respectively. When MSD-CRL was taken as 11.3 mm, AUC for prediction of spontaneous abortion was 0.780(P<0.05), with sensitivity, specificity, PPV and NPV values were 56.84%, 89.01%, 24.00% and 97.10% respectively. When the combination of FHR and MSD-CRL, the AUC for prediction of spontaneous abortion was 0.922(P<0.05). Conclusions: The spontaneous abortion rate was 5.85% in the study. The cut-off value for FHR and MSD-CRL to predict abortion are 94 bpm and of 11.3 mm, respectively. The lower the fetal heart rate and the smaller MSD-CRL diameter are, the higher the spontaneous abortion rate will occur.

Cite this article

CAO Yunyun, WANG Guanjie, ZENG Min, WANG Haifeng, NIU Jianmei, ZHOU Leiping . Prediction value of first trimester ultrasound parameters for pregnancy outcome[J]. Journal of Diagnostics Concepts & Practice, 2021 , 20(05) : 445 -449 . DOI: 10.16150/j.1671-2870.2021.05.004

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