Abstract:

Objective To establish the nomogram and predict the risk factors of wound complication in patients with emergent abdominal surgery via a midline vertical incision. Methods The clinical data of 247 patients treated in Department of Surgery Ruijin Hospital including 68 cases with wound complication and 139 cases without wound complication were collected and analyzed. Risk predictors were selected from the items of clinical strategies by the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression model and multivariable logistic regression analysis was performed with incorporated items. C-index and calibration plot were used to evaluate the discrimination and calibration of prediction model. Results Six items including age ≥60 years, smoking and history of abdominal surgery, preoperative lower albumin in serum and increase in C-reactive protein level, and both continuous and interrupted suture of abdominal incision were included in the prediction model. The prediction model showed better discrimination and calibration with a C-index of 0.747 (95%Cl: 0.678-0.816). Conclusions The established nomogram can be used to predict the risk of wound complication in patients with emergent abdominal surgery via abdominal midline vertical incision.

Key words: Emergency, Abdominal surgery, Wound complication, Nomogram